Manager, Business Intelligence (Outlooks & Scenario Planning)

Job Purpose

Lead long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks to inform strategic planning, capital allocation and business growth strategies, and safeguard long-term value by preparing ADNOC Gas for uncertainty and multiple future worlds.

Key Accountabilities

u2022 Lead long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks that feed the Strategic Plan and capital allocation.

u2022 Develop macroeconomic and sector-level scenario models evaluating future energy trends, risks and opportunities under multiple transition pathways.

u2022 Perform integrated portfolio and P&L stress-testing to assess ADNOC Gasu2019s resilience and agility under different market and policy environments.

u2022 Lead initial high-level financial and economic modelling (CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities) for new growth opportunities, ensuring alignment with corporate value-creation targets.

Assess external and internal strategic drivers and translate their implications into actionable insight for the long-term Strategic Plan.

u2022 Interface with ADNOC Upstream and DM&T on plans, profiles and demand forecasts, and assess the impact of Gas Masterplan alignment.

u2022 Build, lead and develop the business intelligence and scenario planning team, with emphasis on UAE National development in line with Emiratisation targets.

u2022 Building a credible long-range outlook capability from a standing start, in a first-of-its-kind function, while the IGP operating model is still being stood up.
u2022 Producing outlooks that remain robust across 5 to 25 years without drifting into unusable theory u2013 every scenario must translate into a decision signal.
u2022 Holding the boundary with the Planning & Value Chain Optimization mandate: this role uses portfolio results for stress-testing it does not optimize assets.
u2022 Securing consistent input data and assumptions from ADNOC Upstream, DM&T, Marketing and Finance across entity boundaries.
u2022 Earning executive trust fast u2013 outputs go directly to EXCOM and the CEO dialogue with ADNOC.One agreed set of long-term outlook assumptions used across ADNOC Gas, replacing competing versions.
u2022 Develop a living scenario model that senior leadership actually runs decisions through.
u2022 Develop Early-warning signals and strategic guardrails accepted and used by the other IGP mandates.
u2022 Develop Strong influence without authority across divisions and Group entities.
u2022Develop a high-calibre team and ensure retaintion of the team

Minimum Requirements

• Bachelors degree wiht 12 and more years of experience , with at least 5 in long-range outlook, scenario planning, business intelligence or corporate and strategic planning in oil and gas, LNG, petrochemicals or energy consulting. Prior line-management experience required.
• LONG-TERM OUTLOOK & SCENARIO MODELLING u2013 proven ownership of 5 to 25 year market, demand, supply and price outlooks and multi-pathway scenario sets used for real corporate decisions.
• GAS / LNG / NGL VALUE CHAIN DEPTH u2013 genuine command of gas and LNG market structure, contracting and the economics that move them.
• FINANCIAL & ECONOMIC MODELLING u2013 CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities and P&L stress-testing at portfolio level able to build and defend the model, not just read it.
• EXECUTIVE COMMUNICATION u2013 track record of turning analysis into board and EXCOM-ready recommendations excellent structured written and spoken English.
• CROSS-FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE & TEAM LEADERSHIP u2013 evidence of securing data, assumptions and alignment across divisions and separate legal entities without direct authority, plus building and developing a specialist team.